What do you believe?

From an email "survey" received today:

Do you believe in the existence of a risk premium (in the sense of Keynes Normal Backwardation Theory) in the commodity futures markets?

Is s the forward price equal to the expected future spot price? An interesting question, perhaps. Although, it seems pretty easy to test with a bit of data. I guess just asking people about what they believe the facts to be is easier.

But what do I believe... That is a question.
maybe? Crash Davis, Bull Durham (1998)? nah? Still working on it